If you’re reading this, it means you survived the weird slate of games we saw yesterday!

Let’s start with my picks:

The Bucs-Saints game is one of the only ones to go the way I thought it would. It was a low-scoring game in which the Buccaneers ran away with it early. Baker Mayfield looks great to start the year, and so does the defense. I really hope they can keep it going, however, the Mike Evans hamstring injury is something to keep an eye on. They cannot lose him for a significant amount of time.

The Rams and Colts under looked so good until the fourth quarter, when the Colts finally showed up to play. That over/under came down to a 2-point attempt, which Indianapolis converted with ease. The Rams pulled this one out in the end, but they still aren’t looking very impressive in the first quarter of this season.

Vegas set a trap that most people fell for, as the Dolphins were surprisingly blown out in Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have his usual pinpoint accuracy and took some bad sacks, including a big one on fourth down around midfield. The defense couldn’t bring down Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, or anyone else on the Bills’ offense. Maybe the Dolphins really did have an advantage from the intense heat last week. Regardless, this game served as a reminder of who the team to beat is in the AFC East.

So, we went 1-2 yesterday, bringing our record to 4-5, -0.7u. We’ll get back on track next week.

There were some other interesting games around the league yesterday:

The Bengals had an embarrassing loss in Tennessee to bring their record to 1-3 on the season. Derrick Henry finally got going, looking like he was playing against middle schoolers, and he even threw a touchdown pass. It looks like more than Joe Burrow’s injury for Cincinnati. They just look like a bad football team and have for four weeks now.

In the suck-bowl, the Broncos came back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Bears, who look like they’ll have the first two picks in next years draft. Justin Fields is right about Chicago’s coaches: they look like they’re trying to lose football games. Fields had maybe his best game passing in the NFL, and Matt Eberflus decided not to kick a field goal to put the Bears up with three minutes left.

In the night game, some bad and missed calls down the stretch sealed the game for Kansas City. Zach Wilson played his best game of the year and looked as confident as he ever has. However, the Chiefs killed the last 7 minutes of the game with some help by the referees, who made a phantom pass interference call on Sauce Gardner that negated a Jets interception and missed a clear holding call on Jermaine Johnson on Patrick Mahomes’ 25 yard rush for a first down. There’s nothing I hate more than a “sports are rigged” guy, and the Jets had some calls go their way in the first half, but these are calls you can’t get wrong at that point in the game. It’s almost as if the NFL knew its audience and catered to it.

For the second time this year, we have games at MetLife Stadium on back-to-back nights. The Giants are matched up with the Seahawks tonight, who are favored by two points. I’ll be honest; I have no read on this game. I still don’t quite believe in Geno Smith and the Seahawks on the road, and I do believe the Giants are a better team than they’ve shown this year. They’re at home tonight, but have already been blown out there this year, and they’re still missing Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas. For that reason, I’m taking tonight off. I don’t bet just for the sake of it, so I’ll just have some fun throwing some money on a first touchdown.

Good morning and welcome to another football Sunday! We have a full day slate today and are coming to you with some picks to make it a little more interesting:

1) Bucs +3.5, 1u

To be honest, I really don’t like the Saints as much as some people do this year, and I think the Buccaneers bounce back after their loss to the Eagles on Monday night. Winning in the Superdome is always a tough task, but I’ll be taking the healthier of the two quarterbacks, as Derek Carr will be playing with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder.

2) Rams-Colts under 45.5, 1u

The Rams’ offense looked abysmal against the Bengals on Monday night, and I believe the Colts may be the better team at this point. That being said, I do believe Aaron Donald will take over this game on defense. A favorite with a bad offense and good defense is always a recipe for a good under bet.

3) Dolphins ML +120, 1u

You don’t have to tell me. I know this game is a trap. The Dolphins are coming off a game in which their offense scored seventy points and they’re underdogs. But, it’s too good not to take. I’ll fall into this hole with 90% of America with a smile on my face.

Enjoy today’s slate of games, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the reaction!

We got back on track yesterday as the Detroit Lions handled their business at Lambeau Field in Green Bay last night.

The Lions showed last night that they are clearly the best team in the NFC North. They have a complete defense with an elite pass rush, run stop and secondary. Jared Goff, despite of throwing picks in his last three games, has looked very comfortable and confident in the pocket. He has a great set of receivers to throw to, and it seems you can plug anyone in at running back on that team. Head coach Dan Campbell has far exceeded expectations through his tenure.

On the other side, the Packers took a while to get going. Early turnovers that backed them up in their own end set the defense back. Jordan Love had a slow start for the second straight week, but came out of the half looking recharged and put a scare into Lions bettors for a few minutes. Ultimately, they dug themselves too big a hole to climb out of.

Moving forward, I still think the Packers are in decent shape. They have a lot of big names on defense, including Quay Walker, who looks like he’s coming into his own after some sloppy play last year, and Jaire Alexander, who may be the best corner in football. They have a great running back in Aaron Jones and a true WR1 in Christian Watson. If they eventually get David Bakhtiari back and Jordan Love continues to figure it out in this league, they’ll stay in wildcard contention.

Enjoy your weekend, and we’ll be back on Sunday morning with some picks on what should be another great football day!

Hello all, and welcome to another beautiful day that features NFL football! Before we get to that, we have get into something that hasn’t been featured on this blog yet: MLB baseball.

Now, baseball is my favorite sport. If I had to choose between it and football, I’d go baseball every time, but when it comes to gambling football will always be king.

One of the greatest things in sports is a tight MLB playoff race. The weather may be getting colder but baseball diamonds heat up in September. We saw that first-hand last night in Seattle.

Coming into this series between Houston and Seattle, the Astros held a half-game lead over the Mariners for the final AL wildcard spot. They split the first two games of the series and put on a show in the rubber game last night.

Framber Valdez pitched well despite his lack of curveball control, Yordan Álvarez hit one of his classic home runs (a laser that goes 450 in about 3 seconds), and the benches cleared after Hector Neris jawed at and walked toward Julio Rodríguez after striking him out.

Julio had himself a disappointing series, not recording a hit in 9 at-bats. The Mariners now sit a game and a half behind the Astros and two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the wildcard standings with one series left.

In other news, there’s football on tonight! The Lions go into Green Bay, where they ended the Packers’ playoff hopes last season.

The Lions are coming off a good game against the Falcons on both sides of the ball, and the Packers came back from down 17 against the Saints after Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury. While both were great wins, the Lions looked a bit better to me last week.

I’m always hesitant to pick against the Packers at Lambeau, but this is a game I don’t want to overthink. This is a different Packers team than we’ve seen in years past. Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander may all be back tonight, but Detroit is clearly the better football team.

I still don’t believe in Jordan Love. Before the Carr injury last week he looked bad. I don’t trust a guy who’s hit-or-miss to play well under the bright lights. The potential is there, and I hope he proves me wrong, but right now I’m going to stick with the experienced quarterback in primetime.

The current spread has the Lions favored by 1.5. Because of this, I’ll be taking Detroit ML at -125. A -1.5 line is always a recipe for disaster.

Enjoy a cold beer and good football tonight, as this should be the first decent Thursday Night game we’ve had since week one.

OFFICIAL PICK – Lions ML -125 1.5u

NFL RECORD TO DATE – 2-3 -0.8u

It wasn’t a great Monday night for us here at Tough Money Sports. The Eagles got it done, covering -5 effortlessly, but the Rams and Bengals played a defense-heavy game that cost us the over.

That brings our record this NFL season to 2-3, -0.8u. Nothing we can’t come back from!

The Eagles reminded us why they’re a top 2 team in the NFL. It seems for the second season in a row they don’t quite fire on all cylinders early, but are still playing well enough to win games. They do, of course, for the second straight year, have an easier schedule to start. However, that’s no knock on them. You can’t help but play who’s on your schedule and Philly is taking advantage. Look at the Cowboys; they’ve had a cupcake schedule to this point and already have a loss.

The Rams, on the other hand, have looked awful since their Super Bowl win just two seasons ago. Neither team could move the ball in the Rams-Bengals game last night, but Los Angeles going 0-10 on third down eventually gave Cincinnati some momentum. Matthew Stafford spent the entire night on the ground and looked scared in the pocket. The Bengals defense held Puka Nacua in check, and Aaron Donald can only hold down the fort for so long on defense. The Rams have the worst record in NFL history in 20 games after a Super Bowl win. Last year’s excuse was a Stafford injury. What is it this year?

So, we’re onto Week 4, and we’ll be back later this week to bring you some picks and previews.

Another NFL Sunday is in the books, and it was a wild one. We saw a team drop 70 for the first time in over 50 years, the big bad Cowboys upset by a team trying to lose, and Josh McDaniels kick one of the softest field goals ever.

First off, let’s start with my picks. We went 1-2 yesterday, down 0.7 units. The Packers, who looked terrible in the first half, came back from down 17 after Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury. That was certainly not the game I expected to win yesterday.

Minnesota’s playoff hopes are all but over, as there have only been a handful of teams to ever start 0-3 and still make the playoffs. Justin Herbert finally played up to his expectations, going off for 405 yards and 3 touchdowns, and poor clock management at the end of the game put a fork in the Vikings.

The parlay I made yesterday is what really made me angry. Although I did hedge (and I hope you did the same), I felt so good about it going into the night game. The Colts-Ravens game went exactly as I envisioned, and a Patriots safety on Zach Wilson sealed the win for them.

The way Jimmy G and the Raiders played last night, it never felt like -3 was winning. However, with about 4 minutes left in the game, Las Vegas was miraculously within one score. They needed 8 points to tie the game, and Josh McDaniels kicks a field goal on 4th down because the Steelers’ offense wasn’t moving the ball. On the attempt, Pittsburgh committed a leverage penalty which resulted in an automatic first down. So Vegas runs a few more plays, gets down to the 15, then STILL KICKS THE FIELD GOAL after burning a precious minute and a half off the clock. In Josh McDaniels’ logic, the Raiders had a better shot putting the ball in the end zone from 80 yards with 10 seconds left.

Enough about me and my troubles, we saw some great games yesterday including the Dolphins going nuclear and dropping 70 points on the Broncos. There were a lot of people who believed Denver would come out strong in this must-win game, but they did the complete opposite. The Cowboys defense was shredded by an Arizona team that came to play, and they had no answer on offense with a depleted line. Another huge upset we saw was the Texans over the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud looks very good in his first three weeks as an NFL quarterback. Maybe he can be the one to finally stop the trend of Ohio State QBs sucking in the NFL. Speaking of which, the Bears look like the worst team in the league right now, as they were unsurprisingly blown out by the Chiefs yesterday. The Bears playoff talk and Justin Fields hype during the offseason was always laughable. This is a perpetually bad football team with a bad quarterback.

The Lions, Browns, Bills and Seahawks all took care of business as favorites yesterday, with Seattle-Carolina being the only relatively close game. Josh Allen humbled the Commanders, and the Lions’ defense stifled the Bijan Robinson and Falcons.

It was a good day of football, and we’re right back at it tonight with two more games. Tonight’s pick is going to be a Monday Night Football parlay:

Eagles -5 and Rams-Bengals o43.5 +270 1u.

Cincinnati is honoring Boomer Esiason and Chad Johnson into their new ring of honor tonight and the stadium should be electric. Joe Burrow will be a game-time decision but the offense is due for a big game regardless. The Bengals just signed A.J. McCarron who has some starting experience on this team. The Eagles, well, they’re the Eagles. As much as I like Tampa Bay, this should be a come-back-down-to-Earth game for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers.

Enjoy tonight and we’ll see you back here tomorrow!

RECORD – 2-2 +0.2u

Good morning everyone, and welcome to another NFL Sunday! We have an okay slate today (America’s Game of the Week on FOX is a double-digit spread) but that doesn’t mean we aren’t gambling on it. As always, be sure to bet responsibly.

You may notice I’m heavy on the 1:00 games and don’t take anything in the 4:00 window. That’s because my Cowboys are playing and I like to devote my attention to them during their games (that’s also why you’ll never see me pick a Cowboys game).

Without further ado, here’s my card for todays slate of games:

Vikings ML +127 (50% profit boost on DraftKings). 1u.

The Chargers defense has been atrocious thus far, and I’m not a big fan of the offense either.

Packers ML -118. 1.5u.

I do believe the Saints are the better team, but keep in mind this is Green Bay’s home opener.

PARLAY: Colts +8 Patriots -2.5 Raiders -3 +582. 1u.

I believe the Ravens are a bit overrated to this point, and the Colts are a bit underrated. I believe Gardner Minshew will fit seamlessly into that Colts offense and they’ll keep it within a touchdown. The Patriots? Come on. Bill gets off on beating the Jets and I like it by a field goal. As for the Raiders, I believe they’re a much better team than the Steelers at home in a prime time slot. If the other two legs hit, think about hedging the Sunday night game.

We’ll check back in tomorrow with the results!

What a start! The first pick we gave here at Tough Money Sports is a winner. It wasn’t easy (A failed two-point attempt and Tyrod Taylor escaping a safety were two key moments) but we were able to sweat it out. I hate to say it but it’s all downhill from here.

I was, however, wrong about this game being close. The Giants defense that I swore wasn’t as bad as what’s been put on tape this season looked absolutely awful. It seemed like every third down resulted in big chunk yardage for the 49ers or a stupid penalty by the Giants. Micah McFadden was the only player on that defense to show some heart.

On the other side, the 49ers showed they are the best and most complete team in the NFL. Run game, passing game, pass rush, run stop, special teams, coaching; they have it all. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are just unfair. They’re both so fast, strong and slippery that they cannot be brought down on first contact. Brock Purdy is in the perfect situation, in Kyle Shanahan’s offense with a line that gives him all the time in the world and the most athletic receiving corps in football.

Daniel Jones looked scared all night. The defense gave him no time in the pocket and were on the receivers like glue. The Giants beat the Cardinals last week with the deep ball, but the 49ers defense didn’t allow any time for the wide outs to get downfield.

The Giants also beat themselves a bit on offense. Darren Waller had three balls go through his hands and head coach Brian Daboll seemingly called no designed runs for Jones.

All in all, this game confirmed what we all thought about the 49ers and dropped the Giants a few spots down on the power rankings.

RECORD – 1-0 +0.91u

Welcome to another beautiful day featuring NFL football!

One thing the COVID-19 pandemic taught me is that even double digit spreads on Thursday nights should be cherished. It’s easy to lose appreciation and forget so early on that we only get 18 weeks of this per year.

That being said, I don’t believe the game tonight will be as bad as advertised.

The New York Giants have looked bad this year; and I mean bad. A 40-0 stinker against a division rival on primetime, followed by going down 21 to the tanking Arizona Cardinals. However, I believe their comeback in the second half of that game more accurately reflects what this team can be.

Now, they will certainly have an uphill battle this week facing what I believe to be the best team in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers, with Saquon Barkley and likely Andrew Thomas sidelined with injuries.

As it currently stands, the 49ers are favored by 10.5 (I use DraftKings for my lines, your bookie may have a different number from time to time). For the caliber of the 49ers and the recent play of the Giants, this line seems a bit low. For that reason, I’d consider taking the Giants +10.5. I know a rat line when I see one, and since every person in America believes this game will be a blowout I figure it’ll actually be pretty close.

Personally, that line makes me uncomfortable, so I’ll be sticking with the total. The over/under is set at 44, and I’ll be taking the under in this game.

The 49ers defense is unreal, and the Giants have already been shut out once this year. Their offense is now down a few players and I can’t see them moving the ball much tonight.

On the other side, it feels like a crime taking an under featuring this 49ers offense. Between Brock Purdy (who’s starting to look more and more like Tom Brady), this offensive line, weapons like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffery, it seems as perfect as it can get. However, I don’t believe this Giants defense is as bad as it’s looked. In the Cowboys game week 1, the Giants struggled on offense and special teams, but the defense actually didn’t give up much. Also, Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to come out tonight with something to prove, as New York sports media has been killing him all week.

I’m in no way saying the 49ers will struggle, but I do believe it will be a defensive game tonight.

Remember to cherish every moment of this season you can, as it’ll be gone before you know it. Relax, crack open a beer, put a few bucks down and enjoy yourself tonight watching what should be a pretty good game.

OFFICIAL PICK – Giants/49ers u44

RECORD – 0-0

Hello all, and welcome to the inaugural blog of Tough Money Sports! I appreciate anyone who stumbles across this post for reading.

Since this is a blog about sports and gambling, let’s start off by listing things you SHOULDN’T do while betting on sports (some fun tips and some important ones).

1. Gambling as a source of income.

As the oldest saying in the book goes: “The house always wins.”

As cliché as this quote is, it’s accurate. One thing I learned early in life is that nobody makes money gambling. It should be looked at as a game you play with money you expect to lose.

The odds are always slanted toward the bookie, with -110 odds for 50/50 bets and so on. It can be compared to roulette at a casino. Sure, you can stick with black and red bets and feel like you have a 50% chance on every spin, but the house always has the slight advantage with those two green spaces.

Betting outside of your means does not mean betting more than you have. Instead, it means betting more than you can comfortably lose. While it’s undoubtedly exhilarating, it’s also extremely irresponsible. You never want to be in a position where a loss seriously affects your life.

There are no guarantees in life and even the biggest locks are due to lose every now and again. The best way to gamble is to look at it as paying to have some fun while watching a game.

2. Betting on games you aren’t watching.

Everyone knows the guy who will bet 30 games on a college football Saturday, or who will throw a bet on Korean baseball before bed on a Tuesday night.

My thought process has always been that you shouldn’t bet on a game you aren’t watching, because of my previous point of gambling for fun.

Gambling on every game possible is playing a dangerous game. It’s a lot to keep up with and the increased stress you’ll feel definitely takes the fun out of it.

Betting on anything and everything increases the odds of the house, or in this case the bookie, winning. You can do all the research you want but eventually the hot and cold streaks even out, and as we went over in the previous point, the bookie always has the statistical advantage.

Let’s compare it to a blackjack table with a continuous shuffling machine. Casinos implement this tool to limit the breaks in play. As the players get their numbers up, that statistical advantage begins to take play.

Every hot streak will eventually regress to the mean. This is why you should limit your betting by only gambling on what you’re watching.

3. Parlays.

Everyone loves parlaying picks to maximize earning potential. You know who loves it the most? Bookmakers!

I’m NOT saying never make parlay bets. Some of my most fun gambling moments have come from parlays. For example, this most recent Thanksgiving I hit a 3-leg touchdown scorer parlay at around +1750 odds.

What I am saying is not to rely on parlays as your standard. There have been studies that show the big guns in sports gambling (DraftKings, FanDuel etc.) make most of their money from parlays.

Don’t have a day like I did week 2 of this NFL season: What could have been a 5-2 day turned into an 0-2 day because I parlayed.

Those great odds can be very tempting, but it’s always important to remember why those odds are so large to begin with.

4. Being afraid to buy the half point.

Have you ever had a football team -3.5 that wound up winning by a field goal? Of course you have!

That half point may not look like a lot, but it makes a huge difference when it comes to being on either end of a football number (3, 7, 10 etc.). It’s the difference between a team winning by a field goal/touchdown or winning by more than one. It’s why Vegas sets the lines like that in the first place.

Putting up the few extra bucks to ensure a push in that situation is definitely worth it.

On a similar note, if a team is favored by 1.5, just take the ML. A one-point finish when you have a team -1.5 is enough to bring even the strongest men to their knees.

5. Buying picks.

The absolute DUMBEST thing you can do in sports gambling is paying for someone else’s picks.

Not only does it take the fun out of betting, but it’s a complete waste of money.

Let me give an example:

You’re a casual bettor who usually plays units of $20. There’s a “shark” out there who claims to be on the hot streak of a lifetime. He charges $100 for his picks, and you decide to buy. Now, you bet at least $120 on this game as to not lose money on the deal. The pick loses, and you’re now down ELEVEN units on a single bet.

The people selling picks have no more inside information than you and me (nobody does), and anyone who’s actually on a big hot streak isn’t hiding that behind a paywall. Tail your buddies, tail a Twitter account you like, tail your wife making picks based on team colors, but DO NOT pay anyone for picks.

Lastly,

If you take away one thing from this post, it should be that gambling is supposed to be fun. It’s something to talk about with your friends. It’s not something that should involve life-changing money in either direction. Please, if you feel you or someone you care about has a problem, call your state’s hotline and get the help you need.