Good morning, I hope we all had a good night’s sleep after another Sunday Night Football stinker.

In Brian Daboll’s return to Buffalo, he finally had his star running back but not his quarterback. This game was extremely low-scoring and poorly officiated, and the team we knew would win pulled it out in the end. It seems the NFL can’t risk one of their golden children losing under the bright lights against a New York (New Jersey) team.

Speaking of New York teams, the Jets pulled out the very surprising upset of the Eagles. Zach Wilson still isn’t looking great, or even good for that matter, under center, but the Jets’ defense is finally firing on all cylinders. If they can keep carrying that team through the season, and by some miracle Aaron Rodgers is ready for the postseason (he won’t be; post all the videos you want of you moving and throwing but a torn Achilles is a torn Achilles), this team could be one you don’t want to see in the playoffs.

The Eagles, on the other hand, looked bad. Jalen Hurts threw 3 picks to 3rd-string corners, and an early Lane Johnson injury proved to be a huge problem on offense. Moving the ball gets a bit harder when your right tackle doesn’t get to jump early on every play.

While we’re on the topic of upsets, a missed field goal at the buzzer by kicker Jake Moody (after missing one earlier in the game) sealed a Browns win over the 49ers. The Browns, who had an XFL quarterback under center in P.J. Walker, did just enough on offense against that great San Francisco defense. He held out longer than most people expected but Christian McCaffrey finally got hurt, Brock Purdy looked human, and the Cleveland defense made George Kittle look non-existent. As I said in yesterday’s blog, I was itching to take Browns +10, but chickened out and took the over instead (which pushed, thanks to three missed field goals).

My other two picks on the day hit, with huge division wins for the Vikings and Jaguars. That brings our record to 8-7, +1.1u on the season.

We have what should be a good game tonight against the Cowboys and Chargers, but you know what happened last time Dallas was in prime time. I believe they bounce back this week, but if you want to bet on them (I’m not), make sure to take the ML. Remember, -1.5 is the most dangerous line in sports betting.

Good morning all, and welcome back to another beautiful autumn NFL Sunday.

I hope you’re already relaxing and watching the Ravens dismantle the Titans in London. We have a pretty good slate of games today, so here are a few picks to sprinkle while you watch:

Jaguars -4, 1u.

This is the first time all season a team has had a full week to prepare for just Gardner Minshew. The Jaguars are rolling after their win against the Bills last week, and I think they get it done against this division rival at home (their U.S. home).

Vikings -3, 1u.

I still don’t believe the Vikings are as bad as what they’ve put on tape this year, and I certainly don’t believe the Bears are as good as they played against the Commanders last week. The Justin Jefferson injury is scaring a lot of people, but one injury at wideout won’t make or break a cover. Give me Minnesota on the road.

49ers-Browns o36, 1u.

I’m only taking the over in this game because I’m too scared to take the Browns +10. It’s going to be a cold one in Cleveland, and that means we should see a lot of Christian McCaffrey. That usually means points, and I believe the Browns offense will put some up themselves at home.

Enjoy the games today and always remember to bet responsibly (especially if you’re tailing my picks)!

There was NFL football on last night. I, however, didn’t bother to tune in. All week this felt like a game I could just catch the highlights of the next day.

There was no buzz around social media for this game. I mean, that’s why Taylor Swift was there, right?

The Broncos are an embarrassingly bad football team and it’s starting to make me think less of Sean Payton’s time in New Orleans. As some people are speculating about Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, it now feels like Drew Brees carried that team to a Super Bowl in spite of him.

The Chiefs play down to their opponents every game. They’re historically bad at covering double-digit spreads (they covered last night’s by half a point), but in the end you know they’ll always pull out the win. It’s starting to get a bit annoying, and it doesn’t help that Patrick Mahomes is constantly complaining to the referees over minor contact.

The last few prime-time games have been stinkers. On Monday night, we had a boring game between the Raiders and Packers; both teams that aren’t going anywhere this season. We lost Packers +2, bringing our record to 6-7, -0.7u, so I could just be projecting. However, I don’t find low-scoring games between wildcard teams (at best) entertaining.

Sunday night featured that abysmal Cowboys-49ers game, and last Thursday featured two teams that aren’t making the playoffs in the Bears and Commanders. This upcoming Sunday once again features the New York Giants, the most boring team in football year after year. I understand the goal for the NFL is viewership and the Giants, who won a playoff game last year, are in a huge market, but there’s absolutely no reason to have them in a prime-time slot 4 out of the first 6 weeks. Since they’ve reverted back to being the Giants this year, nobody outside of fans of the teams playing want to watch.

What hasn’t been boring, however, is playoff baseball. Three of my predictions were correct, with the exception of the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers and the playoffs go together like milk and orange juice. Clayton Kershaw continues to melt down every year in October, and another (non-COVID) regular season goes down the drain.

If you tailed my Phillies pick, you found yourself winning a nice chunk of change last night. They are the most fun team in baseball right now, and that pains me to say as a Mets fan who grew up in the Utley/Rollins/Howard era. Between Castellanos’s four home runs in two games, Bryce Harper staring down Orlando Arcia after his two home runs, and the atmosphere at Citizen’s Bank Park, it was an electric series.

The Rangers and Astros will be a fantastic series, but I believe Houston pulls through in the end. This is their seventh consecutive ALCS appearance, and that experience will prove to be important. The Diamondbacks have their work cut out for them against the rolling Phillies, but part of me thinks they come out on top. I’m a superstitious betting man, and the fact that every team that’s beaten the Brewers in the playoffs has moved on to the World Series makes me think that trend continues.

Happy Columbus Day everyone! If you’re reading this, it means you survived week 5 of the NFL season.

Our picks went 2-1 yesterday, bringing our record on the NFL to 6-6, +0.3u.

In the 1:00 slate, the Colts, with Jonathan Taylor back but Gardner Minshew under center, held on to beat the Titans. Indianapolis has two quarterbacks that fit perfectly into that scheme, and you barely notice the difference in play.

The Saints-Patriots game was very different than I had pictured, but we hit that under nonetheless. The Patriots are a mess. Missing defensive stars are a huge problem, and Mac Jones continues to get worse.

In the 4:00 slate, the Broncos let the Jets hold on as the game seemed to come down to which quarterback sucked less. In the battle of the Wilsons, Zach far outplayed Russell, who hasn’t improved a bit under the new regime in Denver. He’s still the same QB that runs around too long, makes stupid decisions and takes terrible sacks. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy that took the Seahawks to the Super Bowl twice.

The games we didn’t bet on were pretty good too.

Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: the Steelers won a divisional game at home. As home dogs they looked dead after a muffed punt put the Ravens close to their end zone, but Lamar Jackson threw a terrible goal-line pick to give the Steelers a chance. They capitalized on it when Kenny Pickett hit George Pickens for a touchdown. The entire AFC North division has left a lot to be desired in the early-going, and right now it’s up for grabs between any of those teams.

Speaking of the AFC North, the Bengals bounced back against the Cardinals. Ja’marr Chase had a historic day receiving and Joe Burrow looked much more comfortable behind a line that was actually blocking for him. Maybe this is the start of the turnaround they so desperately need.

The Chiefs put the fork in the Vikings’ season, winning by 7 in Minnesota. Taylor Swift’s boyfriend went down with a non-contact ankle injury but was able to finish the game. The Vikings should start to seriously consider moving Kirk Cousins.

The Lions look like the real deal, as they handled the Panthers yesterday. The defense is extremely talented and the offense is firing on all cylinders. They’re the clear favorite to win the NFC North division.

One game that wasn’t very good was the Sunday night game between the Cowboys and 49ers. What was supposed to be a close, low-scoring game turned into an absolute annihilation of the Cowboys. I’ve said it before, but the 49ers are the perfect football team. They have weapons at every position on the field, a great coach, and they found a steal at quarterback who was putting the ball wherever he wanted last night.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are done. Last night was a season-ruiner, especially if guys like Daron Bland, Leighton Vander Esch and Donovan Wilson are going to miss significant time. Dak Prescott is not the guy he was a few years ago and will never take this team to a Super Bowl. That being said, coaching can at least try to put him in an offense that highlights his strengths. After firing Kellen Moore, they switched to a west coast offense under Mike McCarthy. Not only does the offense look like it’s from 1985, but the receivers don’t get open and Dak Prescott is uncomfortable throwing the ball deep. Do you see how that’s a problem? The Cowboys, like so many other teams around the league (Jets and Giants come to mind) are trying to turn their quarterback into something he’s not. At this point, I’m not even sure they make the playoffs.

We’ll gear up for what should be a decent Monday night game, and I’ll be putting a unit on the Packers +2. The Raiders have problems on offense when they can’t get the ball to Davante Adams, and he’ll be covered by Jaire Alexander. I’m expecting the crowd to be about 70% Packers fans and I think it gives them the edge tonight.

Good morning all and welcome to another NFL Sunday. We have a pretty good slate today, ending with the true game of the week in Cowboys-49ers in Santa Clara.

We hit the over in a thriller between Texas and Oklahoma yesterday, and we’re looking to keep that rolling today.

Here are my picks:

Colts +3 1.5u

The odds for this line are around -130 so make sure to put that extra half unit on it. I know they’ve been on a roll but I’m still not a huge fan of the Titans. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are streaky players and the Colts defense at home should be able to stop them. I’m loving Anthony Richardson and the Colts up to this point and think they’re one of the most underrated teams in football.

Saints-Patriots u39 1u

In my opinion, these are two of the worst offenses in football. Mac Jones looks worse and worse every game, and the Saints are coming off a game against the Bucs where they couldn’t get anything going on offense. The Saints defense will likely shut down Jones and the Patriots, and even with Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez gone for the foreseeable future, I don’t think the Saints do much on offense.

Broncos -2.5

It seems everyone in the media did a 180° on Zach Wilson after his performance against the Chiefs last Sunday night. I don’t know if it’s everyone wanting a break from Taylor Swift, but he still made plenty of mistakes, including a lost fumble in the most important stretch of the game. One good week doesn’t make you the guy, and I believe he’ll revert back to his mean this week in Denver. If I’m picking this matchup based on quarterbacks, I take Russell Wilson ten times out of ten, especially at home.

On the NFL this year, we’re 4-5 down 0.7 units. We responsibly sat out the two weekday games and are looking to bounce back! Enjoy your day (hopefully you’re already watching the London game) and let’s win some money!

Good morning all, and welcome to the first day of real playoff baseball. We have a full slate of games today, starting with Rangers-Orioles in Baltimore.

The series I’m most interested in is Phillies-Braves. Now, I’m a fan of an NL East team so I may be a bit biased, but this rivalry is easily the best of the DS matchups. I believe the Phillies win this series against this historic Braves team, as they have the momentum coming in and haven’t even gotten Bryce Harper going yet. Also, the two games in Philly are going to be LOUD. I love the Phillies so much in this series I’m going to put a unit on it +145.

I believe the Rangers, Astros and Dodgers will win their series’, but I won’t be making official picks for those.

The Orioles are young and have almost no playoff experience, so it’s going to be tough winning a 5-game series against a loaded Texas team.

The Astros just turn something on in the playoffs, and I expect them to do the same this year. A core of Yordan Álvarez, José Altuve and Alex Bregman can get you to the World Series. Add in Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and a fantastic pitching rotation and they’re scary. I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t back there this year. The Twins had their moment in the playoffs, winning a game for the first time in a full adult life. However, this is where things get very tough, and Houston is the better baseball team.

The Dodgers, like the Braves, are a historic team when it comes to producing runs. The Diamondbacks, like the Orioles, have very limited playoff experience. Although the Dodgers are somewhat known for choking in the playoffs, I expect this to be a pretty quick series in the other direction. The Diamondbacks were a nice Cinderella story in the regular season but their time is coming to an end.

In other news today, we have the last Big 12 iteration of the Red River Shootout in Texas. In honor of that, I’ll be taking over 60.5 in that game.

Enjoy this rainy day filled with great matchups and we’ll see you back here tomorrow for some NFL picks!

It happens every year. Around week 4 or 5, we start to figure out which teams we like and which teams we dislike. The problem is, so does Vegas.

The Chicago Bears, who haven’t won a game in nearly a calendar year, came into last night’s game as 6-point underdogs. They were in Washington against the Commanders, who just came off a high-scoring thriller against the Philadelphia Eagles.

A spread less than a touchdown for this game was bait. The Bears have been terrible to this point, with the offense only showing some life against a Broncos team that had given up 70 points in their previous game.

Bookmakers are starting to set clear trap lines (i.e. the Dolphins as underdogs coming off that 70-point game) and it’s important that we don’t fall for them.

As you can tell, I didn’t bet on last night’s game. At this point in the year, I’m not just trying to put numbers up. I try to be smart with my bets and only take games I feel good about.

Something I do feel good about is playoff baseball this weekend. I’ll have a little division series preview tomorrow morning with one series pick that may surprise you.

Enjoy your Friday and have a great football/baseball weekend!

Happy hump day everyone! I apologize for missing you yesterday, but I couldn’t bring myself to write about the disaster that was Monday Night Football.

This has been a pretty decent NFL season, but the prime time games have left a lot to be desired (and it’s just going to get worse with Bears-Commanders on Thursday night). Especially the ones that have featured the New York Giants.

Daniel Jones is not the guy they paid him to be. When Saquon Barkley isn’t playing, Jones looks like a completely different quarterback. He’s easily flustered, makes terrible reads and runs into sacks. However, I’m starting to think Brian Daboll isn’t blameless in this.

The Giants allowed eleven sacks on Monday night. After about six, you’d think the head coach would change up the game plan a bit. Start throwing some short, quick passes instead of continuing to throw the ball downfield. There was no adjustment. Instead, he just berated and belittled Jones when he came to the sideline. I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad thing, as I love a head coach who holds his guys accountable, but you have to take some accountability yourself.

It amazes me that this team has continuously had the worst offensive line in football for a decade. It’s easy to say that they’re trying to fix the problem; that the guys they draft are busts. In reality, the Giants have done nothing but throw a Band-Aid on it. They draft star linemen out of college and immediately move them to different positions. For example, Evan Neal stinks at right tackle for the Giants. That’s because he was a left guard his entire life. Unless you have the right guy for it, NFL lines shouldn’t be plug and play. Especially when it’s from one side of the line to the other.

That was a lot of football talk for what was going to be a baseball post, so let’s get to game one of the MLB Wildcard series!

There were some good games yesterday, starting with Rays-Rangers in the dome. I felt for Tyler Glasnow. He pitched a great game and was able to tough it out after a 109-mph comebacker hit him square in the hamstring. They Rays lost due to sloppy defense and poor execution of small ball plays. Yandy Diaz had a tough day in the field recording one error, but that didn’t tell the entire story. There were overthrows everywhere, and it looked like guys were too excited in the moment. Jose Siri popped up a bunt with one out and runners on the corners, which halted any offensive momentum the Rays had that inning. Texas won 4-0 and is one game away from the ALDS.

The Twins broke the 18-game losing streak in the playoffs winning 3-1, backed by some great defensive play and two Royce Lewis home runs. A-Rod in the booth was convinced Kevin Gausman was tipping his pitches, as Twins hitters weren’t falling for the splitter and Lewis turned on an inside heater for his first home run (his second was on a fastball right down Broadway).

The Diamondbacks got the job done in Milwaukee, even with rookie Brandon Pfaadt taking the mound against Corbin Burnes. Paul Seawald cleaned up for the save in the ninth without breaking a sweat.

The Phillies had no issues with the Marlins off a great start by Zack Wheeler, and I’d be very surprised if they don’t close out that series tonight.

We’re loading up for another great day, starting at 3:00 in Tampa. October baseball, baby; there’s nothing like it!