Do you smell that? Spring is in the air! Today, Thursday February 22nd, we get to watch a real MLB game… sort of. At 3:10 Eastern, the Dodgers take on the Padres, although there likely won’t be any household names playing. These two teams will also open the regular season in South Korea less than one month from now.

With the start of Spring Training games, it’s the perfect time to continue our 2024 preview series. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division:

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. They finished the season in last place, 20 games under .500. The thing is, the lineup was not nearly as bad as the record shows.

The Cardinals replaced future Hall-of-Fame catcher Yadier Molina with the best possible replacement in Willson Contreras. He provided the best OPS on the team, and was followed by names such as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar, who all performed pretty much up to standard (except Goldy, who we’ve all grown to expect an MVP-like performance from every year). Jordan Walker also had a solid rookie year, hitting .276 after starting his season with a hit in 12 straight games.

Of course there were some players who had disappointing years, as is the case with every team. Names that come to mind specifically are Paul deJong and Tyler O’Neill. However, the biggest problem on this team was the pitching staff. Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty both put up ERAs well over 4, Jordan Montgomery didn’t find his stride until he was traded to the Texas Rangers, and Adam Wainwright was on a retirement tour. One pitcher who actually exceeded expectations was Steven Matz, who allowed less than one home run per 9 innings for the first time in his career. Even he, however, posted an ERA in the high threes in 2023. The bullpen was not much better. After Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks, there were no notable names that produced any value.

The Cardinals’ front office has recognized this issue, making three major moves over this offseason. They signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson, all accomplished, well-respected starting pitchers. Also, in the Jordan Montgomery trade last season, they acquired reliever John King, who posted a sub-two ERA in 2023.

If the lineup continues to perform, and the pitching additions play up to par, I believe the Cardinals can make the huge jump from the bottom of the division to the top in just one offseason.

Milwaukee Brewers

From the bottom of the division, we move to the top. The Brewers won the NL Central by nine games with a solid lineup, including another Contreras leading the team in OPS. Their stars, including Christian Yelich, played up to their expectations and they made some important trades at the deadline. This includes acquiring Mark Canha from the New York Mets, who stepped in with some very clutch at bats down the stretch.

The pitching staff was rock solid, with each starter posting a WHIP around or below 1. There were some questions going into 2023 about the state of the bullpen following the Josh Hader trade, but Devin Williams stepped up big time into the closer role, having 36 saves and a sub-two ERA.

They traded away their 1A Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles this offseason, but retained their 1B Brandon Woodruff. While that’s obviously a huge loss, they signed first baseman Rhys Hoskins who, if healthy, can completely change that lineup. In 2024, I expect just a slight regression from the Brewers, mostly due to a more competitive division, but I believe they’re a Wild Card team at worst.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are an interesting baseball team. They finished in second place in the division last season, but it feels like they should be better than they are. They had a more-than-solid lineup in 2023, including Yan Gomes, Dansby Swanson, and Cody Bellinger, but the pitching staff didn’t exactly perform to the best of their abilities.

They were led by Justin Steele, who had a great season, but everyone behind him, including Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman, were disappointing at best. They lost Stroman to free agency this year and replaced him with Shota Imanaga from Japan. He is an incredible prospect but still a question mark when it comes to MLB pitching.

The jury is also still out on Cody Bellinger, who became a free agent at the end of last season and has yet to sign with a team. If they wind up losing him I believe the Cubs are a worse team heading into 2024, and would put them in third or fourth place.

Cincinnati Reds

Every year, the Reds are a team I root for. I don’t know why; maybe it’s because my grandfather loves to tell me they offered him a Minor League contract back in the day. Most years I’m disappointed, but they finished over .500 last season and can continue to build on that. However, they haven’t.

The Reds’ lineup has some incredible young talent, including Jonathan India, who was the National League Rookie of the Year just two seasons ago, Spencer Steer, who drove in 86 runs in 2023, and, of course, Elly De La Cruz. However, they don’t have any good, experienced veterans supplement that young talent following the departure of long-time first baseman Joey Votto.

The only decent name they have in the entire pitching staff is closer Alexis Díaz. If the Reds don’t have leads, his role with the team won’t matter. Unless they make a splash signing or two, I have the Reds regressing to the bottom of the division next year.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are the team that I believe can take a huge stride forward in 2024. They have a solid lineup, led by veteran Andrew McCutchen, who loves the city of Pittsburgh almost as much as the fans love him. They added catcher Yasmani Grandal and first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who can both provide some pop in the lineup. The icing on the cake is their left side of the infield, containing young stars Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. I believe both can become MVP candidates down the road if they can each play a full season.

Pitching-wise, they extended their ace Mitch Keller this morning, and recently added veteran Marco Gonzales in a trade from the Braves to add some depth. Their biggest move this offseason, however, has been the addition of one of the most dominant relievers in baseball: Aroldis Chapman.

The Pirates finished the 2023 season 10 games under .500. I believe they will make some strides toward a better record this season, and can even move up a spot in the standings.

Predictions

1. Cardinals 91-71
2. Brewers 89-73 (Wild Card)
3. Pirates 80-82
4. Cubs 79-83
5. Reds 72-90

It’s time to assess the damage I did to my bank account on Super Bowl LVIII bets. This is the best part of the big game for some, and the worst part for others. Most of us sprinkle so many plays that it’s tough to keep track of on gameday. So the next day (which should be a national holiday), when we’ve all sobered up, we do the math.

In last Monday’s blog, I didn’t give a true pick between the 49ers and Chiefs. I thought about buying the Chiefs to +3, but decided not to. Instead, in Wednesday’s blog, I explained that I liked the under at 47.5. This was my largest bet and was a winning pick. However, it wound up being a nail-biter after feeling like free money the entire game, only winning by a half point.

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t like the new playoff overtime rules. It minimizes the importance of defense in this game. If you let the receiving team drive down the length of the field and score in overtime, I don’t necessarily think you deserve a chance to counter. However, the outcome of this game would’ve been the same had it been played under regular-season rules, so I digress. I’m just glad we hit that under by a hair.

On Friday, I went over some props that I liked. These props included the over in the national anthem at 90.5 seconds. Right around “…land of the free…” I was convinced this bet was dead. Reba was flying through the song as if she had somewhere else to be. Then, out of nowhere, she held those last few notes for an eternity, and we hit this bet by three seconds.

The next prop bet that I liked was Deebo Samuel as the fastest ball-carrier in the game. We didn’t even come close to this one. Samuel never really had space in front of him and didn’t even crack the top five fastest players. According to the NFL Next Gen Stats, Mecole Hardman was number one, surprisingly followed by Travis Kelce, who turned on the jets in the fourth quarter.

The third prop I liked was a Rashee Rice touchdown at +130. This one also didn’t win. Rice was (as predicted) the second-most targeted Chief, but only came away with 39 receiving yards. The passing game wasn’t there most of the game, and Mahomes never really looked for him in the end zone.

The fourth prop we took was the 49ers to win the time-of-possession battle. I made it clear that the 49ers were going to hold the ball more, but that it wouldn’t exactly translate to a win, and that’s exactly what happened. San Francisco held the ball over two minutes longer than Kansas City, but ultimately couldn’t pull out the win.

Our last prop was another fun one: Taylor Swift to not be shown on the CBS broadcast in the first five minutes after kickoff. This bet won, as Taylor wasn’t shown much at all (similar to the AFC Championship two weeks earlier). In fact, CBS only gave her 54 total seconds of air time. It was a refreshing broadcast, with the network giving the Swift fans a taste while not being too overpowering. The NFL Instagram account after the game, however, was a different story.

In total, we went 4-2 (5-2 if you count Chiefs +3) which is what I’d call a successful Super Bowl, especially considering our two losses were on plus-money odds. Winning some money is the perfect way to end what was an interesting 2023-24 NFL season. Now, it’s baseball’s turn. We’ll start previewing the 2024 MLB season on tomorrow’s blog. Have a great Tuesday, everyone, and if you’re in the Northeast, stay safe in the snow.

Something I look forward to every Super Bowl is sprinkling money on as many prop bets as I can. It’s the last football game we’re able to gamble on for seven months, so I like to try and make the most of it. Here are some game and novelty props for you to consider:

1. National Anthem over 90.5 seconds

A quick warning for this one, not every book may have it. I had to take this with my old bookie at 88.5 seconds. Also, this prop should be used as a warm-up as it’s a quick hit bet before kickoff, so don’t put everything you have on it. You don’t want to be in a huge hole before a single snap of football is played.

Reba McEntire is singing the anthem this year, and she is notorious for flying through it. However, from what I’ve seen, she usually sings without background music. It took her 89 seconds when she sang at Texas Stadium in 1999, and it felt very rushed. Some music in the background can easily add two seconds, and it’s been 17 years since the last 90-second national anthem. I’m riding with the over.

2. Top speed in the game – Deebo Samuel +550

I saw this prop on DraftKings and found it interesting. You can bet on which player will have the top max speed in this game. The two starting running backs are the favorites, followed by Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.

This isn’t necessarily a “who’s the fastest player?” bet. There are going to be many factors that can affect this outcome. I’m putting my money on Deebo because I feel he’s the most likely to have a lane with some open space in front of him. I can easily see him cutting upfield on a slant and just turning the jets on.

The downside of this bet is that there’s not going to be an obvious winner to the naked eye, so you just have to trust the post-game analytics.

3. Rashee Rice anytime touchdown +130

Everyone knows who Patrick Mahomes is looking for in the red zone: Travis Kelce. I’m going to imagine that includes the 49ers. Aside from Kelce, Mahomes’ favorite target in the 2024 playoffs has been Rashee Rice. He has 20 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown, all second only to America’s favorite tight end. I believe Rice will have a few touchdown opportunities this game and will capitalize on at least one of them.

4. Most time of possession – 49ers -115

There is one reason and one reason only that I’m confident the 49ers will hold the ball longer than the Chiefs: Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco will rely heavily on the run game, therefore taking big chunks of time off the clock. I don’t necessarily think they win the game, but they definitely win the time-of-possession battle.

5. Taylor Swift NOT shown in the first 5 minutes of the broadcast after kickoff -105

Again, this prop may not be available on every book. I also had to take this one with my old bookie and it came with one caveat: Taylor Swift must be in attendance at opening kickoff.

As we all know, she has been shoved down our throats non-stop since the Travis Kelce rumors started. However, this will be a CBS broadcast. I believe they’ll show her a lot pre-game, but come kickoff will stick to football until Kelce scores.

CBS had the AFC Championship game two weeks ago, and I remember thinking Taylor Swift wasn’t even in attendance. They waited long into the broadcast before they started showing her, and I’m hoping they do the same this Sunday.

6. The coin toss

I’ll say one thing about this prop: take whatever side you want, but take it on a book that offers +100 odds on both sides. It’s not worth paying that extra 10% for a literal coin toss.

Thank you for reading, and have fun this Sunday. Remember to bet responsibly, and we’ll review the damage on Monday.

On Monday we took a look at the spread for Super Bowl LVIII. While that line hasn’t changed, money is starting to come in on the 49ers (an estimated $20 billion has already been wagered on this game). The ratio on DraftKings is now 78/22 in favor of the Chiefs, and the closer that gets to 50/50 the more comfortable I will feel taking Kansas City +3. Today, we’re going to analyze the over/under for those who prefer total bets.

The total, like the spread, has not moved since it opened last week. It’s been set at 47.5, and I’m currently leaning toward taking the under.

Obviously every game is different and unpredictable, but we can do basic math to give us an idea of how many points will be scored in this game. When you combine the Chiefs’ and 49ers’ average points per game for the 2023 season, the sum comes out to 50.7, about 3 points over the total. If you combine the defensive points allowed per game, the sum comes out to 34.8, about 14 points under the total. If we take the mean of those two numbers we get 42.75, the average expected points between these two teams.

Math aside, Vegas always sets totals a bit higher for the Super Bowl because everyone wants to root for scoring. I don’t care though, I’ll root for offense or defense just the same.

In the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl, defense prevails. I believe both defensive lines in this game are better than their offensive counterparts, and both quarterbacks will be under a ton of pressure.

The 49ers, who have been starting slow these playoffs, are going to rely on Christian McCaffrey and the run game, therefore taking big chunks of time off the clock. I simply don’t think there will be enough time to hit the over in this game.

So, while everyone is rooting for touchdowns this game, I’ll be rooting for stops and field goals.

Happy Wednesday everyone! On Friday we’ll look at some Super Bowl props.

Continuing with the theme of lazy sports arguments on this page, there’s one that makes me angrier than the rest: blaming the officials for a loss.

You can take to Twitter every week and find thousands of people saying the referees gifted every single team every single game. The hated teams around the NFL (i.e. the Cowboys and Chiefs) are allegedly always getting bailed out by officiating. In reality, this is a coping mechanism fans use when they don’t get the outcome they want.

I get it; bad calls happen, and I’ve certainly been on the receiving end of a few heartbreakers. However, you can always find a few missed or blown calls going the other way. A poorly-timed bad call does not mean that officiating decided the game.

Let’s look at a few examples from this season:

In week 17, the Lions appeared to convert a 2-point attempt that would’ve won them the game in Dallas. However, an ineligible man penalty brought it back. There was video evidence of the receiver, Taylor Decker, reporting as eligible to the referee but the official either did not hear him or chose not to listen. Detroit then lost the game on a errant pass attempt by Jared Goff.

You can say that the officials gave the Cowboys the game, but that would be a lazy argument. On the previous Dallas possession, Tony Pollard had a first down rush that would’ve ended the game, but it was called back due to a tripping call on tight end Peyton Hendershot. The replay showed an attempted trip on Pollard by Aiden Hutchinson, not Hendershot (not to mention that Micah Parsons is egregiously held on every snap).

That same officiating crew (that was rightfully downgraded out of the playoffs) was in Green Bay week 13, where the Chiefs lost on what should’ve been a clear pass interference by the Packers’ defense. However, you can look back earlier in the drive when the Packers were hit with an unnecessary roughness call for tackling a running Patrick Mahomes in bounds.

Just watch the games. It always goes both ways.

Now, please don’t take this the wrong way. This is NOT a defense of NFL officiating. I wholeheartedly believe there are more terrible referees than good ones, and crews such as Brad Allen’s should lose their jobs, not just playoff rights. However, I don’t believe the league is “rigged” or that officials have nearly as much influence on the outcome of games as fans think.

New York football fans were so eager for this season to get started. The Giants were coming off a season in which they won a playoff game, and the Jets added what was supposed to be the final puzzle piece in quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Halfway through the 2023-24 NFL season, fans of these teams have been left disappointed, a sentiment that is far too common in New York as of late.

For those who don’t live in the area, New York is a baseball town first and foremost. The Mets and Yankees are kings of the city, even when they don’t deserve to be. Much like the football teams of New York, the baseball teams had high expectations going into 2023, and fell far short of them.

The Yankees re-signed slugger Aaron Judge and first baseman Anthony Rizzo during the 2022-23 MLB offseason, but the only move they made to improve the team was signing Carlos Rodón. They lost in the ALCS the previous season, and figured the one move was enough to put them ahead of the Astros. The problem with that rationale is that every other team in the division (aside from the Red Sox) was making moves to get better. Injuries to Judge, Rizzo and Rodón set the Yankees back early. Shortstop Anthony Volpe, who some fans believed would be the next Derek Jeter, got off to an extremely slow start, and the front office had no choice but to keep putting him out there. The deficit in the division eventually became too large to come back from, and three teams in the AL East not named the Yankees made the playoffs.

The Mets had a historic offseason coming off a Wild Card Round loss to the San Diego Padres. (Somewhat) new owner Steve Cohen committed $500 million to free agents, including signing Justin Verlander, coming off a Cy Young season, to his age in millions per year. Similarly to the Yankees, early injuries (some fans felt the season was over before it started, when closer Edwin Díaz tore his Achilles tendon celebrating a World Baseball Classic victory) and poor performances set the team back, and the Mets became sellers by the deadline. They traded both of their 40-year-old aces, along with some position players on expiring contracts, and finished 29 games back in the NL East division.

Both baseball teams were out of it by August, and their futures aren’t looking very bright. The Yankees will retain GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone to the dismay of the fans, and the Mets will use 2024 as a bridge year, building up the farm for the future. For this reason, New York fans were itching for football early, and that excitement makes this disappointment so much worse.

Neither football team can score. The Jets have not put the ball in the end zone in the last eleven quarters of football, and the Giants were just blown out by the rival (albiet one-sided) Dallas Cowboys for the second time this season, being outscored 89-17.

My advice for the football/baseball fans of this city: get into basketball or hockey this year. The Knicks are a fun, likely playoff team to watch and there are no championship expectations. The Rangers are one of the best teams in hockey, and although it’s the least popular of the New York sports, its extremely fun to watch.

Hopefully, things will start looking up soon for this once-great city.

Other teams around Major League Baseball should be taking notes; the Texas Rangers had to tweak their original plans and still built a winning baseball team.

The Texas Rangers put on a management masterclass the past two seasons, crafting a team piece by piece with an even mix of free agent signings, trades and draft picks.

It all started in 2021, when a 28-year-old Adolis García hit 31 home runs and finished 4th in Rookie of the Year voting. In December of that year, they invested half a million dollars into their middle infield. The signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien gave them a base to work around. That base was supplemented by depth signings such as Mitch Garver, a solid catcher who was underappreciated in Minnesota, and pitcher Jon Gray.

After the 2022 season, they bolstered their starting rotation, signing two-time Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, who has been a very solid hard-throwing journeyman, and Andrew Heaney. They also hired a future Hall-of-Fame manager in Bruce Bochy, who had won three titles with the San Francisco Giants.

However, the 2023 season did not go exactly according to plan. A bad bullpen and injuries (specifically, deGrom opting for Tommy John surgery on his UCL) caused them to shift their focus to the trade market. They traded for another Hall-of-Famer in Max Scherzer, the flame-throwing reliever Aroldis Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery, who played a vital role in this years’ playoffs. Injuries in the starting lineup prompted the Rangers to call up Evan Carter, who raked the rest of the season.

Almost every player contributed to this championship run, including Jacob deGrom. The Rangers won all 6 games he pitched in this season. If they had lost even two of them, they possibly miss the playoffs, giving up that Wildcard spot to the Mariners.

A multifaceted strategy like this is something a lot of teams can learn to implement. Take the Mets for example. They’ve proven that you can’t just buy a winning team. You also have to make the right trades at the deadline and draft well.

Looking to the future, the Texas Rangers will be the league’s standard.