Although the MLB regular season starts this week, we’re taking a break from that preview series. Instead, we’ll be taking a look at the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
As great as October is when it comes to sports, nothing compares to this time of the year. Baseball, the Masters, the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup, and it all kicks off with the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness, especially the first two rounds, is a gambler’s Nirvana. There’s nothing in this world that compares to slacking off at work on Thursday and Friday to bet on 32 college games. If you work from home, go ahead and crack a beer or two. I won’t tell.
This year, I’ve been pretty hot betting on college basketball. The “system” I’ve been using focuses heavily on free throws; a team’s percentage at the line and how often it gets there.
Next, I look at 3-point percentage and the amount of attempts behind the arc. In today’s game I believe it’s very important to hit threes consistently, but I’m also weary of teams that rely too heavily on them. Sometimes, they just don’t fall.
Then I look at turnovers. I don’t put too much weight on this stat as it swings from game to game. However, teams that turn the ball over 12+ times per game tend to be the ones I stay away from.
Lastly, I look at rebounds. A team that plays well on the glass can swing a game, especially if it’s pulling down offensive boards and getting second chances regularly.
Based on this strategy, I’ve filled out my bracket as follows:
(Courtesy of ESPN)
Some notes:
Alabama to win the tournament seems like the popular pick this year since it led the nation in scoring. If it had been a one or two seed I don’t think I would’ve taken it. However, I believe there’s less pressure as a four seed and it can make the run all the way.
Nebraska is my biggest sleeper this year. It’s above average in free throw and 3-point percentage and is aggressive on the glass. I believe the potential matchups in this tournament can bring the school to the Final Four.
I have three 5-12 upsets and one 2-15 upset in my bracket this year, and I believe at least two of these will happen. Iowa State is not a good enough basketball team to warrant a two seed, and 5-12 is one of the most common upsets in this tournament.
I don’t see St. Peter’s recreating it’s 2022 run as a 15 seed. As an alumnus of a MAAC school I’ve seen a lot of this team and don’t believe it can beat Tennessee. Although, I said the same thing about it two years ago.
Some first-round plays:
Stetson +26.5
I love this large number for an above-average 3-point shooting team.
Charleston-Alabama o173.5
Alabama leads the country in scoring, but both of these teams average double-digit threes on the year.
*If Colorado advances in First Four* Florida ML (no odds available yet, but should be around -120)
Florida is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and is better than Colorado in just about every stat.
Enjoy every minute of this tournament, but as always, please bet responsibly. We’ll check in later this week for the Seoul Series, and to see how some of our picks went.
Tough Money Sports 