Do you smell that? Spring is in the air! Today, Thursday February 22nd, we get to watch a real MLB game… sort of. At 3:10 Eastern, the Dodgers take on the Padres, although there likely won’t be any household names playing. These two teams will also open the regular season in South Korea less than one month from now.
With the start of Spring Training games, it’s the perfect time to continue our 2024 preview series. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division:
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. They finished the season in last place, 20 games under .500. The thing is, the lineup was not nearly as bad as the record shows.
The Cardinals replaced future Hall-of-Fame catcher Yadier Molina with the best possible replacement in Willson Contreras. He provided the best OPS on the team, and was followed by names such as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar, who all performed pretty much up to standard (except Goldy, who we’ve all grown to expect an MVP-like performance from every year). Jordan Walker also had a solid rookie year, hitting .276 after starting his season with a hit in 12 straight games.
Of course there were some players who had disappointing years, as is the case with every team. Names that come to mind specifically are Paul deJong and Tyler O’Neill. However, the biggest problem on this team was the pitching staff. Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty both put up ERAs well over 4, Jordan Montgomery didn’t find his stride until he was traded to the Texas Rangers, and Adam Wainwright was on a retirement tour. One pitcher who actually exceeded expectations was Steven Matz, who allowed less than one home run per 9 innings for the first time in his career. Even he, however, posted an ERA in the high threes in 2023. The bullpen was not much better. After Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks, there were no notable names that produced any value.
The Cardinals’ front office has recognized this issue, making three major moves over this offseason. They signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson, all accomplished, well-respected starting pitchers. Also, in the Jordan Montgomery trade last season, they acquired reliever John King, who posted a sub-two ERA in 2023.
If the lineup continues to perform, and the pitching additions play up to par, I believe the Cardinals can make the huge jump from the bottom of the division to the top in just one offseason.
Milwaukee Brewers
From the bottom of the division, we move to the top. The Brewers won the NL Central by nine games with a solid lineup, including another Contreras leading the team in OPS. Their stars, including Christian Yelich, played up to their expectations and they made some important trades at the deadline. This includes acquiring Mark Canha from the New York Mets, who stepped in with some very clutch at bats down the stretch.
The pitching staff was rock solid, with each starter posting a WHIP around or below 1. There were some questions going into 2023 about the state of the bullpen following the Josh Hader trade, but Devin Williams stepped up big time into the closer role, having 36 saves and a sub-two ERA.
They traded away their 1A Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles this offseason, but retained their 1B Brandon Woodruff. While that’s obviously a huge loss, they signed first baseman Rhys Hoskins who, if healthy, can completely change that lineup. In 2024, I expect just a slight regression from the Brewers, mostly due to a more competitive division, but I believe they’re a Wild Card team at worst.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are an interesting baseball team. They finished in second place in the division last season, but it feels like they should be better than they are. They had a more-than-solid lineup in 2023, including Yan Gomes, Dansby Swanson, and Cody Bellinger, but the pitching staff didn’t exactly perform to the best of their abilities.
They were led by Justin Steele, who had a great season, but everyone behind him, including Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman, were disappointing at best. They lost Stroman to free agency this year and replaced him with Shota Imanaga from Japan. He is an incredible prospect but still a question mark when it comes to MLB pitching.
The jury is also still out on Cody Bellinger, who became a free agent at the end of last season and has yet to sign with a team. If they wind up losing him I believe the Cubs are a worse team heading into 2024, and would put them in third or fourth place.
Cincinnati Reds
Every year, the Reds are a team I root for. I don’t know why; maybe it’s because my grandfather loves to tell me they offered him a Minor League contract back in the day. Most years I’m disappointed, but they finished over .500 last season and can continue to build on that. However, they haven’t.
The Reds’ lineup has some incredible young talent, including Jonathan India, who was the National League Rookie of the Year just two seasons ago, Spencer Steer, who drove in 86 runs in 2023, and, of course, Elly De La Cruz. However, they don’t have any good, experienced veterans supplement that young talent following the departure of long-time first baseman Joey Votto.
The only decent name they have in the entire pitching staff is closer Alexis Díaz. If the Reds don’t have leads, his role with the team won’t matter. Unless they make a splash signing or two, I have the Reds regressing to the bottom of the division next year.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are the team that I believe can take a huge stride forward in 2024. They have a solid lineup, led by veteran Andrew McCutchen, who loves the city of Pittsburgh almost as much as the fans love him. They added catcher Yasmani Grandal and first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who can both provide some pop in the lineup. The icing on the cake is their left side of the infield, containing young stars Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. I believe both can become MVP candidates down the road if they can each play a full season.
Pitching-wise, they extended their ace Mitch Keller this morning, and recently added veteran Marco Gonzales in a trade from the Braves to add some depth. Their biggest move this offseason, however, has been the addition of one of the most dominant relievers in baseball: Aroldis Chapman.
The Pirates finished the 2023 season 10 games under .500. I believe they will make some strides toward a better record this season, and can even move up a spot in the standings.
Predictions
- Cardinals 91-71
- Brewers 89-73 (Wild Card)
- Pirates 80-82
- Cubs 79-83
- Reds 72-90
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