Around here, the end of football season means the start of the greatest time of year: baseball season.
February brings the start of spring training, with pitchers and catchers having reported this week. Position players report on Monday, and we’ll start seeing games on the 22nd. Hell, I’ll even watch a little college baseball for the next week as today marks the NCAA opening day.
So, to prepare for this MLB season, I’m starting a series of blogs previewing each division with offseason analysis, standings and playoff predictions. Today, we’re starting with the National League East division.
Atlanta Braves
You can’t talk about this division and not start with the Atlanta Braves. They’re the best team in baseball and made a few low-risk/high-reward moves this offseason to improve what was already a phenomenal roster. They decided to cut ties early with once-top prospect Vaughn Grissom, trading him to the Boston Red Sox for ace pitcher Chris Sale. This move is considered low-risk because the Braves have the money to spend on him due to the team taking chances on young players, giving them what turn out to be team-friendly contracts. If Sale can just stay healthy, there’s a great chance he returns to his dominant form.
Another move the Braves made this offseason was trading for outfielder Jarred Kelenic. He’s had a very disappointing start to his Major League career, with an OPS under .700. However, he showed signs of improvement in 2023 and has such a high ceiling that the minimal risk is definitely worth the reward.
They have two or three possible MVP candidates in the lineup paired with a dominant pitching staff. I obviously expect the Braves to win this division, and most likely have the best record in baseball for the second straight year.
Washington Nationals
Now we move to the other side of the spectrum. The Washington Nationals, after a decade-or-so-long run, including a World Series title, are finally back to being the team we all know and love. They finished dead last in the division in 2023, 20 games below .500 and 33 games behind the Braves.
Now, you’d think the Nationals would make some moves to try and improve upon that ghastly season. However, they’ve had a fairly quiet offseason to this point. They’ve signed some names you’ve heard of but ultimately won’t make a difference (Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker etc.), and a bunch of former Mets relievers to Minor League contracts (Stephen Nogosek, Adonis Medina, Robert Gsellman). The one big splash signing they’ve made this offseason is slugger Joey Gallo, who hasn’t hit above .200 since before COVID. He’ll likely hit 20+ home runs this year, but that doesn’t exactly translate to 33 wins. I fully expect the Nationals to finish last in the NL East once again in 2024.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are one of those teams that are hit-or-miss every year, and their success really depends on how their stars perform during the season. They snuck into the playoffs in 2023 but were swept by the Phillies in the Wild Card series. They were led by stars Jazz Chisholm, Luis Arraez (who flirted with a .400 average for most of the season) and Jorge Soler, while ace pitcher Sandy Alcantara had a pretty down year, posting an ERA over 4.
Instead of getting better this offseason, they got worse. They lost Soler to free agency as he signed with the San Francisco Giants earlier this week, and replaced him with Trey Mancini, who is a shell of what he was in Baltimore, on a Minor League deal.
It could be because they lost general manager Kim Ng (who looks like she’s eyeing Brian Cashman’s job in New York), but this Marlins offseason has been a net negative. I’m putting them in fourth place in the division this year.
New York Mets
The Mets are an interesting baseball team. They won over 90 games just two years ago, then looked like the Bad-News Bears last year with virtually the same roster. They dumped $80 million into two 40-year-old pitchers and sold them off at the deadline. Now, the richest owner in the league, Steve Cohen, is hesitant to spend stupid money.
The starting rotation was a dumpster fire in 2023, and the only thing the Mets have done to bolster it is sign two major question marks in Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. New GM David Stearns has also brought in Adrian Houser as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. They need Kodai Senga to have another Cy Young-caliber season in his sophomore year.
I’m torn on the Mets, however, because as bad as the starting rotation is, the bullpen should be pretty good. They’re getting Edwin Diaz back in the ninth, meaning Adam Ottovino is going back to the set-up spot, where he thrives. They signed Jake Diekman and Shintaro Fujinami, and retained Brooks Raley and Drew Smith, all reliable arms.
The starting lineup should be good too. They have Pete Alonso, who averages 45 home runs over 162 games, on a contract year. Behind him are Jeff McNeil, who won a batting title as recently as 2022, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor. They should have a healthy Starling Marte and prioritized defense this offseason, signing center-fielder Harrison Bader.
I think if the Mets could finally sign a DH somewhere down the line, they could be a second-place and possible Wild Card team.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are another interesting team in this division. They finished in second place last year, coming off a World Series appearance. For two straight years, as much as I hate to admit it, they’ve been the most fun team in baseball.
Bryce Harper is always an MVP threat, Trea Turner is amazing to watch when he’s flying around the bases, Nick Castellanos is impossible to dislike, and Kyle Shwarber can put any team in a hole early as the leadoff hitter. Not to mention they have a top-two catcher in the league in J.T. Realmuto.
However, aside from keeping Aaron Nola, their offseason has also been a net negative. They lost Rhys Hoskins and Craig Kimbrel to free agency and haven’t really done anything to replace either of them. However, like the Mets, the core of that team is still there, and they can easily take second place and a Wild Card spot. It’s going to be a great battle all year between Philly and New York.
Predictions
- Braves 102-60
- Phillies 91-72 (Wild Card)
- Mets 83-79
- Marlins 78-84
- Nationals 70-92
Tough Money Sports 