It’s time to assess the damage I did to my bank account on Super Bowl LVIII bets. This is the best part of the big game for some, and the worst part for others. Most of us sprinkle so many plays that it’s tough to keep track of on gameday. So the next day (which should be a national holiday), when we’ve all sobered up, we do the math.
In last Monday’s blog, I didn’t give a true pick between the 49ers and Chiefs. I thought about buying the Chiefs to +3, but decided not to. Instead, in Wednesday’s blog, I explained that I liked the under at 47.5. This was my largest bet and was a winning pick. However, it wound up being a nail-biter after feeling like free money the entire game, only winning by a half point.
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t like the new playoff overtime rules. It minimizes the importance of defense in this game. If you let the receiving team drive down the length of the field and score in overtime, I don’t necessarily think you deserve a chance to counter. However, the outcome of this game would’ve been the same had it been played under regular-season rules, so I digress. I’m just glad we hit that under by a hair.
On Friday, I went over some props that I liked. These props included the over in the national anthem at 90.5 seconds. Right around “…land of the free…” I was convinced this bet was dead. Reba was flying through the song as if she had somewhere else to be. Then, out of nowhere, she held those last few notes for an eternity, and we hit this bet by three seconds.
The next prop bet that I liked was Deebo Samuel as the fastest ball-carrier in the game. We didn’t even come close to this one. Samuel never really had space in front of him and didn’t even crack the top five fastest players. According to the NFL Next Gen Stats, Mecole Hardman was number one, surprisingly followed by Travis Kelce, who turned on the jets in the fourth quarter.
The third prop I liked was a Rashee Rice touchdown at +130. This one also didn’t win. Rice was (as predicted) the second-most targeted Chief, but only came away with 39 receiving yards. The passing game wasn’t there most of the game, and Mahomes never really looked for him in the end zone.
The fourth prop we took was the 49ers to win the time-of-possession battle. I made it clear that the 49ers were going to hold the ball more, but that it wouldn’t exactly translate to a win, and that’s exactly what happened. San Francisco held the ball over two minutes longer than Kansas City, but ultimately couldn’t pull out the win.
Our last prop was another fun one: Taylor Swift to not be shown on the CBS broadcast in the first five minutes after kickoff. This bet won, as Taylor wasn’t shown much at all (similar to the AFC Championship two weeks earlier). In fact, CBS only gave her 54 total seconds of air time. It was a refreshing broadcast, with the network giving the Swift fans a taste while not being too overpowering. The NFL Instagram account after the game, however, was a different story.
In total, we went 4-2 (5-2 if you count Chiefs +3) which is what I’d call a successful Super Bowl, especially considering our two losses were on plus-money odds. Winning some money is the perfect way to end what was an interesting 2023-24 NFL season. Now, it’s baseball’s turn. We’ll start previewing the 2024 MLB season on tomorrow’s blog. Have a great Tuesday, everyone, and if you’re in the Northeast, stay safe in the snow.
Tough Money Sports 