On Monday we took a look at the spread for Super Bowl LVIII. While that line hasn’t changed, money is starting to come in on the 49ers (an estimated $20 billion has already been wagered on this game). The ratio on DraftKings is now 78/22 in favor of the Chiefs, and the closer that gets to 50/50 the more comfortable I will feel taking Kansas City +3. Today, we’re going to analyze the over/under for those who prefer total bets.
The total, like the spread, has not moved since it opened last week. It’s been set at 47.5, and I’m currently leaning toward taking the under.
Obviously every game is different and unpredictable, but we can do basic math to give us an idea of how many points will be scored in this game. When you combine the Chiefs’ and 49ers’ average points per game for the 2023 season, the sum comes out to 50.7, about 3 points over the total. If you combine the defensive points allowed per game, the sum comes out to 34.8, about 14 points under the total. If we take the mean of those two numbers we get 42.75, the average expected points between these two teams.
Math aside, Vegas always sets totals a bit higher for the Super Bowl because everyone wants to root for scoring. I don’t care though, I’ll root for offense or defense just the same.
In the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl, defense prevails. I believe both defensive lines in this game are better than their offensive counterparts, and both quarterbacks will be under a ton of pressure.
The 49ers, who have been starting slow these playoffs, are going to rely on Christian McCaffrey and the run game, therefore taking big chunks of time off the clock. I simply don’t think there will be enough time to hit the over in this game.
So, while everyone is rooting for touchdowns this game, I’ll be rooting for stops and field goals.
Happy Wednesday everyone! On Friday we’ll look at some Super Bowl props.
Tough Money Sports 