The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers met in the Super Bowl just four years ago, and it taught us a lot about both teams heading into this weekend. However, I’m still going back and forth deciding which team I want to ride with.
At first glance, Kansas City +2 felt like free money. This team is this decade’s Patriots, in that no matter how mediocre they look in the regular season, they turn it on in the playoffs. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes already has three Super Bowls under his belt, winning two of them. The quarterback he’s playing against, Brock Purdy, only has a season and a half of experience but has never lost a playoff game with an intact UCL.
While the Chiefs have the better, more experienced quarterback, the 49ers are better at almost every other position. The offense is a powerhouse and the defense may be even better. A defensive line featuring Nick Bosa and Chase Young could potentially ruin the game for the Chiefs, who have been having issues on the offensive line all season.
Now, logic would tell you that the better all-around team who can take away the other team’s best asset is the obvious choice. However, when it comes to sports betting logic isn’t always the answer. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a professional Super Bowl loser. He was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in 2017, and was an integral part of the biggest choke-job in NFL history. They led 28-3 with just over two minutes left in the third quarter and decided to stop running the ball, allowing the Patriots to come back and win the game in overtime. He was head coach of the 49ers in 2020 when they collapsed in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV, being outscored by the Chiefs 21-0 and giving Patrick Mahomes his first ring.
Another reason to lean Chiefs is the 49ers have been getting out to slow starts in this year’s playoffs. They had to play from behind against the Packers and Lions at home, and if they get in a hole early on Sunday Kansas City will not let them out of it.
Of course, there is also the conspiracy theory that the NFL wants the Chiefs to win to keep the Taylor Swift fans invested in football. While I believe that angle is nonsense, it does feel as if the Taylor-Travis Kelce kiss under the confetti is inevitable, along with the “nobody believed in us” speech from the tight end. Sometimes, feel is the most important thing regarding sports betting.
As you can tell, I want to take the Chiefs despite believing the 49ers are the better team. There is one thing stopping me from this: according to DraftKings, over 80% of the money is on Kansas City, and the line has not moved since it opened last week. That tells me Vegas is heavily invested in the 49ers winning and covering in Super Bowl LVIII.
In all honesty, I still have no clue who I am betting on this Sunday. As of now, I’m leaning toward Kansas City and buying the point to +3 , a football number. On Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the over under.
Happy Monday everyone, and always remember to bet responsibly!
Tough Money Sports 