The old saying goes, “basketball is a game of runs.” This statement couldn’t be more true, so why wouldn’t we use that to our advantage when throwing a bet down on it?
What I mean by this is: NBA bets should always be placed live (as long as your outlet allows live betting, of course). Momentum is a critical part of basketball and maximizes the value of the lines you bet.
Think of it like the stock market. Lines, like stock prices, move up and down as the game progresses. If you get in at the right time, you can see your money rise with the stock. For example, you’re looking at a spread with a heavy favorite at -8.5. The game starts, and the underdog goes on an early 12-3 run. You take another look at the line and it’s moved to -3.5. Bet that better line!!!
More often than not in basketball, the runs will average out within the game and you’ll see results closer to the original lines. People love to use the cliché, “basketball games are decided in the last two minutes,” and while some people find that boring, I love that aspect of the sport because it allows me to bet at a higher win rate.
I’ve already started 2-0 on the 2023-24 NBA season with this strategy. On Tuesday night, the Lakers and Nuggets flew out of the gates and were scoring at will. About 6 minutes into the game the total was set at 237.5, and I took the under. The game ended at 225 points. Last night, when the Spurs went up by 10 in the first quarter, I put some money on the Mavericks +1.5. They were originally 4-point favorites and wound up covering that number anyway, with a Luka Dončić step-back dagger sealing the deal.
You can capitalize on momentum changes in the NBA, as long as you keep an eye on the market. The pendulum usually swings the other way.
In the football world, we have what should be a good Thursday night game between the Bucs and Bills; two teams looking to get back on track after bad losses last week. For that reason, I’ll be taking over 43.5 in this game. A 9.5 point spread makes me uncomfortable, so I’ll just have fun tonight and root for points. On the NFL this year, we’re 8-7, +1.1 units. Sticking with the theme of this blog, we’re looking to keep that momentum going tonight.
Enjoy, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow with a World Series preview.
Tough Money Sports 